Géopolitique du Moyen-Orient et de la Corne de l'Afrique
Geopolitics of the Middle East and the Horn of Africa

Symposium Economy of Fascination –Thematic Production of Postmodern Urban Landscapes
Internationales Wissenschaftsforum Heidelberg
November 8 to 11, 2007-11-08

Dubai : where the dream comes true ? A Glimpse behind the Stage

Dr Marc Lavergne, Geographer, Head Researcher, National Centre for Scientific Research/University Lyon-II, France

I - A new City or a potential City ?

Dubai ‘s mere existence is recent. From a village founded in 1833, it has become a two million inhabitants metropolis, its mushrooming growth dating back only to the late 80’s.
This growth has been achieved on desert land, void of any local urban tradition. It is the result of the oil findings in the area that started in the early 70’s, and the city has been, with the partial exception of its original core along the Creek, drawn on paper before being implemented : a city designed by urban planners before being built by imported manpower.
Dubai is an unstabilized city: over 90 % of its inhabitants are foreigners whose stay is temporary and precarious, with no right and no prospect of putting down roots. It is therefore considered more as an enterprise and a project than as a city in the proper sense.
This raises the question of its governance: the emirate is run by a tiny group of Nationals, a ruling elite around the Prince’s family, the Al-Maktum, and their foreign advisers. They have been able to make of the former pearl diving and trading spot a hub of international commerce, of world affairs, of tourism and, during the last decade an attraction of its own, with the launch of urban projects which represent each a challenge attracting the attention, the surprise and the fascination of the world.
It has to be recalled here that this has been made possible by the belonging to a wealthy Federation of Arab Emirates led by Abu Dhabi, and under the protection of the Western powers, symbolised by the strategic umbrella of the United States.

II - An ambitious and original urban project

The ambition is the most peculiar aspect of this project. It is not new, since it dates back to the founding of the city. Its short history is punctuated by decisions of the rulers, which allowed the city to take developmental steps ahead of its neighbours, and to assert itself as a regional trading hub, long before the discovery of oil. The shrewdness of these strategic decisions can be related to the adventurous and open-mindedness of the rulers, and of the Bedouin world to which they belong. From nomads roaming in the desert, they shifted to seafaring in order to pursue trade and smuggling which was already a part of their livelihood on land.
Their ability to seize opportunities can probably be better understood when taking into consideration the necessities of the survival in a harsh environment and of moving swiftly from one activity or location to another.
Challenge is integrated in the collective mind and remains as present as ever, even if the achievements could now be seen as sufficient to ensure the local population a prosperous life for decades to come.
In the official plans set up by the team surrounding Sheikh Muhammad, the Ruler, the population should reach 15 millions by 2020. It openly targets to overcome Hong Kong and Singapore (and even New York) as a leading economic focal point at the world level, from being today the third re-export centre of the world. The new airport under construction is designed as the first of the world. These infrastructure should serve a diversified but highly capital-intensive economy where new technologies, communication and information, tourism should take over (or complement) the present reliance on international trade and industry.

This project is original since it has been pushed, during the last decade, to the point of a complete reshaping of the City’s structure: its sprawling expansion, based on an impressive economic boom, has been geared toward the south of the City, along a 50 km long coastline, and toward the inland, reaching now a 20 km depth. Toward the north, the neighbouring emirates have been integrated into the momentum and serve now as residential neighbourhoods or industrial workshops, whereas the coastline is under a thorough transformation into a succession of leisure resorts, up to the northern border, 150 km away from the city.
Dubai itself is the site of impressive, amazing, and often seen as extravagant urban projects: the three “Palm islands”, “the World” archipelago, following the Burj el-Arab Hotel, all on reclaimed land, while the sandy shore has been excavated to create a series of lakes and marinas, which shape new neighbourhoods bound to become business bays, residential or commercial quarters of the most fancy architectural state of the art. These marinas, rivieras, brand new “old towns” of all thinkable imported styles, are dominated by a forest of giant towers. Under construction, the Burj Dubai, expected to be completed within one year, is due to reach 800 m above sea level. Other projects might well be launched, and reach even higher altitudes in the coming years. The present skyline is already an extraordinary scene, with tens of towers emerging from the cranes (15 % of the world biggest tower cranes are said to be used here); even at night, in the light of powerful lights, the workplaces appear like a theatre animated by the thousands of workers and the rounds of the trucks at the building sites.
So the city under work is a theme in itself: it stages the future, becoming reality under the eyes of the resident as well as of the visitor, at a pace that is not matched anywhere else in the world.
Moreover, the Emirate has embarked into the development of gigantic and yet unseen leisure and entertainment projects: Space land, Dubai land, etc. join the Palm Islands and the World as icons of the Dubai of tomorrow, preceded by the recent (and already seen as emblematic) Burj el-Arab, “the only 7 stars Hotel in the World”, and Sky Dubai, the first ever sky resort in a desert environment. These will overrun any existing or projected theme parks in size as well as in variety, and they are expected to attract visitors from all around the world.
These will be new attraction spots in the fringes of a city that, by itself, is already a themed city. Even the “old” quarters in the core of the city have been turned into “traditional” but refurbished villages, in charge of offering a flavour of heritage and culture.
Where does this endeavour emanate from, and what does it aim to achieve?
First, this recent choice to transform the already booming city into a theme city is the result of a strategic thinking: with the obsession of keeping ahead of other cities, competition is harsh. Dubai has become a model, and its example is followed in various domains by other cities in the area: free zones are opened throughout the Middle East, and even on the Iranian islands of Qish and Qishm nearby. The maritime hub of jebel Ali is now under threat from Salalah, in the deep waters of the sea of Oman. New Air companies try to share the regional market of the successful Emirates Company. Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon attempt to create “Media Cities” and Sky Dome to surf on Dubai’s initiatives. So Dubai think tanks are always in search of new unexplored activities. Dubai may also want to reduce the share of foreigners in its population, and move to less labour-intensive activities than those directly linked with industry and commerce, to respond to the fears of its local population, and to the fear of the ruler of political unruliness. This strategic move responds also to a market survey at the global level : after having responded during the past decades to the needs of the region, and then of the world, in terms of more or less sophisticated consumption needs, the conclusion might be that the scopes of development in this domain are in a declining trend. And that on the contrary, the demand for entertainment, for leisure, for escaping the real world are on an ascending trend at the world level. After having fulfilled existing needs in the surrounding area, Dubai is now bound to respond to needs that sometimes do not exist yet, at least consciously: that is, to create needs adapted mainly to the new wealthy categories of emerging countries. Needs to rest and enjoy their wealth in a secure environment, without having to be confronted to the less foreigner friendly environment of the West. Certainly, the basic idea of theme parks has been borrowed from existing models first developed in North America; but in their gigantism and their style, they seem to reflect the psyche of the local population, and of the “nouveaux riches” of the Middle East, of South and of Far East Asia: an openness to the future, a conquering spirit, but also a rather childlike vision, where traditional values and heritage have been eroded, if not erased, by the assimilation of a Western subculture.

III – Yet a City rooted in its time and environment

Dubai is despite of its cosmopolitism, not a City of nowhere. Its population and its integration in such an urban setting gives it a flavour of its own. The City is demography and economy-wise extrovert, and it depends on many ways on its surroundings: it is highly sensitive to the variations of a fragile geopolitical environment, as well as to the ups and downs of the world economy, through its still heavy dependency on the oil exports of the federation. If decision-makers are locals, they depend on a manpower that originates for 50 % from the Indian subcontinent: not only hard labourers, but executives at al levels, in the administration as in the private sector. It also depends on multinationals companies which chooses to set there part of their regional activities, which make a strategic choice in favour of Dubai for the guarantees and facilities which are granted to them. But in return, their vital presence gives them means of pressure on the government. In this sense, Dubai is not a mere dream : it is the result of very rational calculations and profit-making expectations, and it is for a large part an object of decisions taken elsewhere, as much as a commanding centre.
On the other hand, its economic profile is highly diversified: its base is very material and concrete, with the re-export of goods through local or foreign companies, huge commercial malls, duty free shops, etc., with an important role in serving the strangled Iranian economy through smuggling across the Persian Gulf. Industry, including heavy industry of steel and aluminium, shipyards, and of course petrochemicals, still plays a major role, beside the expanding upper tertiary sector. So the tourism and its subsidiary activities (theme parks, beach resorts, luxury hotels and private residences…) are far from occupying the entire space and the entire active population. The “reality” of the City can be ignored by visitors, but not by the vast majority of the residents.

IV – A City caught up with reality: sustainability at stake

Despite its proper planning and running by the Municipality of Dubai, which cared for large avenues, for bridges and tunnels to deal with the expected need for transportation, and reserved spaces for public gardens and open spaces for relaxation, these plans have been overwhelmed by a tremendous urban growth. Dubai is at the moment facing car congestion, and waits for the relief of the partly underground metro network. Traffic jams have brought stress and pollution, which will only be eased by public transportation. It might be insufficient to serve all needs, while it might damage the individualistic culture on which the City’s appeal has been promoted, and therefore meet reluctances and opposition.

The City’s economic attractiveness was also based on its efficiency: the waste of time in traffic jams, through a widely expanded city space, is also damaging the image of a clean and easy to live-in city.
Environmental constraints cast also doubts on the sustainability of the overall project. While air pollution starts to be felt, energy and water consumption raise the question of the fragility of an economic system so depending on vulnerable supply lines. Terrorism could hardly be countered if tempted by cutting power generation or water desalinisation, on which the mere survival of the entire population is resting. Not to speak about the availability of oil and gas, which provide drinkable water and almost as vital, air conditioning and energy for the elevators…
Fears are even expressed of a lack of sand, caused by the huge demand of the cement and building industry. Whereas the rich fauna and flora coastal marine environment has already been destroyed to a large extent by the diggings of the foundations of the Palm islands and other coastal projects.
Social and societal constraints are also arising without having been foreseen, at a rapid speed and face unpreparedness on the side of the authorities.
One problem stems from the very precarious status reserved to all foreigners: not only do they not enjoy any kind of citizenship, but they are totally under the domination of national individuals or firms, through the system of sponsorship. For the skilled workers, middle class and executives, it basically impedes their commitment to the country, while deterring them from investing in the country on the long run and participating to its prosperity. It even creates a gap of hostility between them and their hosts, and leaves the foreign youth born and grown up in the country in a trap, with no possibility of building a safe future in their country of birth. Besides, in the daily life, the cultural and educational gap between most nationals and the majority of foreigners is reverted in terms of legal rights, which gives absolute precedence to the nationals in any conflict or trial.
As far as the hard or domestic labour are concerned, the situation is even worse : not only do they not enjoy any civic rights, and are often reduced to quasi-slavery by their employers, without any recourse, but their economic situation is that of overexploitation and abuse. After many years of silence and fear, Dubai has recently come in the spotlights for facing its first massive strikes in the field of construction. Low pays are no more enough to make a living for many of them, not even to speak of sending remittances home: economic growth has resulted in a sharp rise of prices; besides, countries like India enjoy a rapid economic growth, and its workers can now find well paid jobs at home. Since low paid labour is one of the keys of Dubai’s success story, the unwillingness of the ruling circles to deal seriously with the problems of inhumane living and working conditions may lead to a shortage of manpower from Asia, and endanger the whole set of projects of Dubai for the ten years ahead. Moreover, the effect of social problems of this kind on the image of Dubai abroad, among prospective investors and visitors, may prove even more damaging for the sustainability of “the dream come true”.

So, Dubai seems to have suddenly reached an age of maturity: it may well loose in terms of unreal and unrealistic image, and might well collapse, after having itself long thriven on the collapse of neighbouring economies, from Central Asia to remote African countries, not to mention Iraq and Iran. But I can also take this opportunity to balance its “Economy of fascination” with a more sound and stable governance, inclusive of those who actually represent the foundations of its prosperity, the migrant community who is keen to settle there beside its home country. It is only then that Dubai will become a true City, made up of cosmopolitan citizens taking part in the decision making, and not just a fascinating urban landscape.